Key Takeaways from Today's Trading Notes:

1. No Trade Executed:

   • Stuck to the plan by avoiding trades when the first deviation moving average was tested after a draw on liquidity.
   • Waited for a signal from the second deviation moving average, which never materialized.

2. Trend Contradictions:

   • Observed a conflict between the H12 bullish trend and the H6 bearish trend, similar to previous sessions.
   • The market hinted at repeating the previous day's setup, but the lack of a clear signal from the second deviation moving average led to inaction.

3. Market Manipulation and Signal Analysis:

   • Although the overall trend was bullish, there was a suspicion of market manipulation targeting longs.
   • The daily candle closed red, indicating bearish dominance after sweeping two daily liquidity levels overnight.
   • A 20-day Monthly VWAP Upperband signaled a short on the 1-hour chart, but a similar false signal on 8/16 led to hesitation in taking this trade.

4. H12 Chart Observations:

   • An H12 Fair Value Gap (FVG) aligned with the second deviation moving average suggested potential liquidity sweeps before a bullish move.
   • This FVG could have provided a lower entry point, but it also posed a risk of shifting the H12 trend from bullish to bearish.

5. Daily VWAP Upperband and Contradictions:

   • The 1D VWAP Upperband signaled a potential short, but the premarket high didn't reach the H12 bearish order block, leaving uncertainty about the full sell signal.
   • The daily candle closing below the first deviation moving average indicates potential bearish strength.

6. Overnight Session and Future Outlook:

   • The overnight session opened with the first order block on the M15 chart at the newly established Line in the Sand (LIS).
   • Despite the bearish daily candle, the overall trend remains bullish with higher highs and higher lows. The next key level is today's session high.
   • The plan is to maintain a long thesis until there is a clear reversal or full sell signal.

7. Reversal Signals and Data Tracking:

   • Noted that the second daily draw on liquidity, which served as a stop-loss area, was rejected, indicating potential market reversal.
   • Plans to monitor and track how buy side and sell side liquidity levels behave in future sessions to better anticipate reversals.

Summary:

You adhered to your trading plan by avoiding trades without clear signals, especially when facing trend contradictions. The market showed signs of potential manipulation and mixed signals, leading to a cautious approach. Going forward, you will continue to monitor key trends and levels while collecting data on liquidity reactions to enhance future decision-making.

No trade day for me. I simply followed yesterdays key intention to not trade the first deviation moving average after a draw on liquidity has been swept, and I was never presented an opportunity from the second deviation moving average. Although the H12 trend remained intact, but there was a contradiction with an h6 bearish trend which we have journaled in previous sessions.

Overall, it appeared that the market would present the same opportunity as yesterday. But again, I didnt get the 2nd deviation moving average signal. 

While the trend was up, and I was following my intention, and the price action appeared to be in a manipulation on longs phase, I simply didnt trade. Looking at the daily candle in hindsight, it closed red, which signals that for this specific trading session, bears won the candle after an overnight sweep of 2 daily draw on liquidity levels.

The 20D Month VWAP Upperband did give a 1 Hour sell signal through it, but it also gave that signal on 8/16 and it was a false signal, so I didnt full trust it.

I also noticed an FVG on the H12 chart, at the exact level of the second deviation moving average, which also signaled that the FVG liquidity could have been fully swept before it went in my direction, which would have provided a lower long entry point from which I wanted, and could also shift the H12 bullish variation to bearish, signaling a trend shift in market direction which would have invalidated longs. The trade of the day setup for the overnight and the 9:30 session were both rewarded to bears, which could have been signaled from the 1D VWAP Upperband as a short entry. But the premarket high on the session, didnt reach the H12 bearish orderblock slightly above it, so I was only working off of the draw on liquidity to the upside that was swept, but didnt initiate a full sell signal. 

I will say, the daily candle did close below the first deviation moving average. Which certainly showcases that bear could be stepping in here. 

Its difficult to say that I should have taken the short signal on the 1D VWAP, because at this point the market was trading well above the 20D VWAP upperband, which could signal more upside momentum in the predominant directional bias. So all signals had many contradictions overall on the trading session. 

The current overnight session has opened, and the first orderblock I can locate is on the M15 chart from the newly established LIS. Also, although bears won this specific daily candle, it is still following an overall bullish trend with higher highs and higher lows, therefor, the next daily draw on liquidity is the high of todays session. So until there is a full sell signal or reversal of directional bias, we must keep a long thesis until proven otherwise. 

Another thing to note, is that the second daily draw on liquidity served as a stoploss area (buyside liquidity) level from a prior bearish daily orderblock, yet the buy side liquidity was rejected and didnt serve as a momentum level for more upside. This also is a stronger signal implication of a potential reversal in the market. 

I have seen buy side and sell side levels often serve as reversal points in the market when there is a failure for follow through, and I think its important to track data on this in the future to analyze buy side and sell side liquidity reactions. 

So for now I will be monitoring the H12 trend, the H12 bullish variation, the 2nd deviation moving average, the H12 FVG for any potential reversals.